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Hou5eMoney The Week Ahead · Monday, October 26 |
Monday, October 26 | Read online
Mixed: 56% of the watchlist green · VIX 19.02 · VIX term in contango — calm, premium-selling tape.
This week: Fed Wed, 37 watchlist earnings, S&P 2.5% off its high.
S&P 500 7,647 +0.31%, 2.5% below its high. VIX 19.0 in contango: normal, both sides open. 56% of the 142-name watchlist is green at the open (80 up, 62 down). Read ten minutes after the open.
The name of the week AMZN reports Thursday after close: the market is braced for a 3.1% day By HM5 Trainer AMZN is expected to earn $1.96 a share against $1.95 a year ago. Its own volatility says a typical day is about ±3.1%; a report can be two of those. The desk has no read on it until the stack lines up. The crowd is on it too: 19 mentions in the last day. The desk's rule for a report is the same every time: no new option position across it, shares only with a stop sized for the move, and the honest trade is often to watch the reaction and take the second move, not the first.
The board at the open | S&P 500 | 7,647 +0.31% | | Nasdaq | 26,024 +0.26% | | Dow | 52,365 +0.29% | | VIX | 19.02 -2.21% | | 10-Yr | 4.99 +0.00% | | Dollar | 101.95 +0.13% | | Oil | 101.86 -1.37% | | Gold | 4,026 +0.44% |
Binary events this week Monday · Oct 26 Earnings · VZ before open ±4.4% Tuesday · Oct 27 Earnings · BA before open ±2.1% · BBAI after the close · HOOD after close ±4.6% · PYPL before open ±1.7% · SOFI before open ±3.9% · SPGI before open ±2.0% · STX after close ±6.8% · UPS before open ±1.4% · V after close ±1.9% ASML Ex-dividend $2.11. Goes ex-dividend 2026-10-27 ($2.11 a share). Wednesday · Oct 28 Fed · 2:00 PM ET The Federal Reserve announces its interest-rate decision, then the chair takes questions at 2:30. Rates set the price of money for everything; the tape often does nothing until 2:00 and everything after. Earnings · AUR after the close · CVNA after close ±4.1% · ETSY before the open · F after close ±2.1% · FDX after close ±1.4% · GOOG after close ±2.0% · GOOGL after close ±2.0% · MSFT after close ±1.8% · NOW after close ±3.4% · VKTX after the close Thursday · Oct 29 Earnings · AMZN after close ±3.1% · CAT before open ±3.5% · COIN after close ±5.1% · INTC after close ±4.7% · LLY before open ±2.9% · MA before open ±1.8% · MRK before open ±2.9% · MSTR after close ±6.6% · PINS after close ±3.7% · RBLX after close ±4.3% · RIVN after close ±2.6% · RKT after the close · SBUX after close ±2.5% · TWLO after close ±6.1% Friday · Oct 30 Earnings · ABBV before open ±2.1% · CVX before open ±1.9% · XOM before open ±1.7% COST Ex-dividend $1.47. Goes ex-dividend 2026-10-30 ($1.47 a share). TXN Ex-dividend $1.52. Goes ex-dividend 2026-10-30 ($1.52 a share). The ± beside an earnings name is the size of a typical day for it, from its own volatility. The desk’s rule: no new option position across a report; shares only with a stop, sized for a move that big.
The briefing Leading: Cons. Disc. +0.93%, Industrials +0.63%, Health Care +0.58%. Lagging: Communication -0.55%, Energy -0.50%, Cons. Staples -0.19%. First five minutes, up: TSLA +3.42% · DELL +2.26% · SOXL +1.92% · CSCO +1.46% · LLY +1.35% Down: MSTR -3.30% · MARA -3.28% · RIOT -3.11% · VZ -3.11% · CLSK -2.92% The last prints | CPI, year over year | 4.0% (was 3.7%) | | Core CPI | 2.8% (was 2.8%) | | Payrolls, last month | 29k (was 133k) | | Unemployment | 4.3% | | Fed funds, upper bound | 4.00% |
Crypto: BTC 79,805 -0.50% · ETH 2,308 -0.81% · SOL 100.93 +0.16% Rates and the Fed, this week Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: Decisions From Fed, Other Central Banks in Focus · WSJ What To Expect From This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting · Investopedia Fed to hit pause on rate hikes, but maybe not for long · Reuters Housing Week Ahead: Metro Rankings, Home Prices, and Fed Rate Decision · Realtor.com
Where the desk leans CRWD LONG on Vertical SpreadsA+ · passes 5 of 6 gate checks Bull Call Spread · Buy 260C / Sell 270C · 17 DTE Graded A+: 5 of 5 indicators agree. 5 of 5 timeframes agree up. Day strength 76, week 83. Buyers 99% on the day, 99% on the week. BUY DIP is firing on the day. Passes 5 of 6 gate checks. Best on each board CRWD LONG · Share SetupsA+ · passes 5 of 6 Top Bananas, last 7 days
LMT LONG · Vertical Spreads · 2026-10-23 XLE LONG · Vertical Spreads · 2026-10-23 SOXL SHORT · Vertical Spreads · 2026-10-22 A+ setups on the scans Weekly: PANW ▲ · CRWD ▲ · HPQ ▲ · NET ▲ · DDOG ▲ · COIN ▼ Daily: PANW ▲ · TSLA ▲ · CRWD ▲ · XLE ▲ · NET ▲ · XOM ▲ Options flow Calls: PLTR $8.3M · MDB $6.1M · LLY $5.6M · MU $5.5M Puts: LRCX $13.9M · AMAT $13.4M · TSM $11.7M · MRVL $9.1M A pick is the closest name to the six-check gate on its board; a Top Banana passed every check with a Trigger arrow firing. Both are paper trades on the desk, never advice.
Hot stocks: what the crowd is on | NBIS Nebius Grouphot | 72 mentions ▲36 | | SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trusthot | 71 mentions ▼1 desk: leans long, graded C | | CRWV CoreWeavehot | 57 mentions ▲63 | | NU Nu Holdingshot | 54 mentions ▲586 | | SPCX SpaceXhot | 51 mentions ▲1 | | MU Micron Technologyhot | 48 mentions ▲1 | | QQQ Invesco QQQ ETFhot | 45 mentions ▼4 desk: leans long, graded C | | META Meta Platforms (Facebook)hot | 43 mentions |
Mentions across the trading crowd in the last 24 hours. Crowded is not the same as right; the desk’s read is beside the names it has one for.
From the News Tape Anthropic IPO live updates: AI lab lost $80.7 billion in first half of 2026 · Oct 26, 9:28 AM ET Exchange-Traded Funds, Equity Futures Higher Pre-Bell Monday Ahead of Big Tech Earnings, Fed Decision · Oct 26, 9:18 AM ET Apollo to buy nearly 10% stake in Abu Dhabi-backed alternative asset manager Mubadala Capital · Oct 26, 9:09 AM ET Q3 Peak Season Arrives: Strong Beats, Sky-High AI Scrutiny · Oct 26, 9:03 AM ET Fanatics teams up with OpenAI for new AI-powered shopping suggestion feature · Oct 26, 9:02 AM ET Update: US Equity Futures Rise Pre-Bell as Traders Assess Declining Oil Prices, Await Fed Rate Decision This Week · Oct 26, 9:02 AM ET The Better Buy? Why IGSB and SMB Serve Different Purposes · Oct 26, 8:50 AM ET 4 of the Highest Yields in the S&P 500 That Are Actually Covered · Oct 26, 8:48 AM ET
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Everything above is what the Tape shows at 9:40 ET, in plain English. Paper trading and education only: nothing here is financial advice, a recommendation, an instruction to follow, or a promise of income. Do your own homework before every trade. Trading carries a substantial risk of loss. Headlines belong to their publishers.
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