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The Week Ahead · Monday, October 26

Monday, October 26  |  Read online

Mixed: 56% of the watchlist green · VIX 19.02 · VIX term in contango — calm, premium-selling tape.

This week: Fed Wed, 37 watchlist earnings, S&P 2.5% off its high.

S&P 500 7,647 +0.31%, 2.5% below its high. VIX 19.0 in contango: normal, both sides open. 56% of the 142-name watchlist is green at the open (80 up, 62 down). Read ten minutes after the open.

The name of the week

AMZN reports Thursday after close: the market is braced for a 3.1% day

By HM5 Trainer

AMZN is expected to earn $1.96 a share against $1.95 a year ago. Its own volatility says a typical day is about ±3.1%; a report can be two of those. The desk has no read on it until the stack lines up. The crowd is on it too: 19 mentions in the last day. The desk's rule for a report is the same every time: no new option position across it, shares only with a stop sized for the move, and the honest trade is often to watch the reaction and take the second move, not the first.

The board at the open

S&P 5007,647  +0.31%
Nasdaq26,024  +0.26%
Dow52,365  +0.29%
VIX19.02  -2.21%
10-Yr4.99  +0.00%
Dollar101.95  +0.13%
Oil101.86  -1.37%
Gold4,026  +0.44%

Binary events this week

Monday · Oct 26

Earnings · VZ before open ±4.4%

Tuesday · Oct 27

Earnings · BA before open ±2.1% · BBAI after the close · HOOD after close ±4.6% · PYPL before open ±1.7% · SOFI before open ±3.9% · SPGI before open ±2.0% · STX after close ±6.8% · UPS before open ±1.4% · V after close ±1.9%

ASML Ex-dividend $2.11. Goes ex-dividend 2026-10-27 ($2.11 a share).

Wednesday · Oct 28

Fed · 2:00 PM ET
The Federal Reserve announces its interest-rate decision, then the chair takes questions at 2:30. Rates set the price of money for everything; the tape often does nothing until 2:00 and everything after.

Earnings · AUR after the close · CVNA after close ±4.1% · ETSY before the open · F after close ±2.1% · FDX after close ±1.4% · GOOG after close ±2.0% · GOOGL after close ±2.0% · MSFT after close ±1.8% · NOW after close ±3.4% · VKTX after the close

Thursday · Oct 29

Earnings · AMZN after close ±3.1% · CAT before open ±3.5% · COIN after close ±5.1% · INTC after close ±4.7% · LLY before open ±2.9% · MA before open ±1.8% · MRK before open ±2.9% · MSTR after close ±6.6% · PINS after close ±3.7% · RBLX after close ±4.3% · RIVN after close ±2.6% · RKT after the close · SBUX after close ±2.5% · TWLO after close ±6.1%

Friday · Oct 30

Earnings · ABBV before open ±2.1% · CVX before open ±1.9% · XOM before open ±1.7%

COST Ex-dividend $1.47. Goes ex-dividend 2026-10-30 ($1.47 a share).

TXN Ex-dividend $1.52. Goes ex-dividend 2026-10-30 ($1.52 a share).

The ± beside an earnings name is the size of a typical day for it, from its own volatility. The desk’s rule: no new option position across a report; shares only with a stop, sized for a move that big.

The briefing

Leading: Cons. Disc. +0.93%, Industrials +0.63%, Health Care +0.58%. Lagging: Communication -0.55%, Energy -0.50%, Cons. Staples -0.19%.

First five minutes, up: TSLA +3.42% · DELL +2.26% · SOXL +1.92% · CSCO +1.46% · LLY +1.35%

Down: MSTR -3.30% · MARA -3.28% · RIOT -3.11% · VZ -3.11% · CLSK -2.92%

The last prints

CPI, year over year4.0% (was 3.7%)
Core CPI2.8% (was 2.8%)
Payrolls, last month29k (was 133k)
Unemployment4.3%
Fed funds, upper bound4.00%

Crypto: BTC 79,805 -0.50%  ·  ETH 2,308 -0.81%  ·  SOL 100.93 +0.16%

Rates and the Fed, this week

Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: Decisions From Fed, Other Central Banks in Focus · WSJ

What To Expect From This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting · Investopedia

Fed to hit pause on rate hikes, but maybe not for long · Reuters

Housing Week Ahead: Metro Rankings, Home Prices, and Fed Rate Decision · Realtor.com

Where the desk leans

CRWD LONG on Vertical SpreadsA+ · passes 5 of 6 gate checks
Bull Call Spread · Buy 260C / Sell 270C · 17 DTE
Graded A+: 5 of 5 indicators agree. 5 of 5 timeframes agree up. Day strength 76, week 83. Buyers 99% on the day, 99% on the week. BUY DIP is firing on the day. Passes 5 of 6 gate checks.

Best on each board

CRWD LONG · Share SetupsA+ · passes 5 of 6

Top Bananas, last 7 days

LMT LONG · Vertical Spreads · 2026-10-23

XLE LONG · Vertical Spreads · 2026-10-23

SOXL SHORT · Vertical Spreads · 2026-10-22

A+ setups on the scans

Weekly: PANW ▲ · CRWD ▲ · HPQ ▲ · NET ▲ · DDOG ▲ · COIN ▼
Daily: PANW ▲ · TSLA ▲ · CRWD ▲ · XLE ▲ · NET ▲ · XOM ▲

Options flow

Calls: PLTR $8.3M · MDB $6.1M · LLY $5.6M · MU $5.5M
Puts: LRCX $13.9M · AMAT $13.4M · TSM $11.7M · MRVL $9.1M

A pick is the closest name to the six-check gate on its board; a Top Banana passed every check with a Trigger arrow firing. Both are paper trades on the desk, never advice.

Hot stocks: what the crowd is on

NBIS Nebius Grouphot72 mentions ▲36
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trusthot71 mentions ▼1
desk: leans long, graded C
CRWV CoreWeavehot57 mentions ▲63
NU Nu Holdingshot54 mentions ▲586
SPCX SpaceXhot51 mentions ▲1
MU Micron Technologyhot48 mentions ▲1
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETFhot45 mentions ▼4
desk: leans long, graded C
META Meta Platforms (Facebook)hot43 mentions

Mentions across the trading crowd in the last 24 hours. Crowded is not the same as right; the desk’s read is beside the names it has one for.

Mergers and corporate actions

CDNL Cardinal Infrastructure Group · 8-K filed 2026-10-19

BRZE Braze · 8-K filed 2026-10-20

SGRY Surgery Partners · 8-K filed 2026-10-26

APEX Tech Acquisition · 8-K filed 2026-10-21

ENVA Enova International · 8-K filed 2026-10-16

EQT EQT · 8-K filed 2026-10-26

RRC RANGE RESOURCES · 8-K filed 2026-10-26

SEC filings (8-K) that mention a merger, acquisition or agreement, newest first. A filing is a fact; what it means for the price is the week’s question.

The world

Bloomberg News Hires Shariq Khan to Cover Middle East Oil Markets · citybiz

Oil Prices Fall as Traders Weigh U.S.-Iran Diplomacy, Saudi Attacks · WSJ

Trump Says Canada Is ‘Willing to Give Us Anything’ as Michigan GOP Rep Raises Alarm Over Auto Tariffs — P · Benzinga

IEA: the latest developments in oil markets · Hydrocarbon Engineering

U.S. Treasury yields are little changed as investors look ahead to the Fed's rate decision · CNBC

Oil price falls back as traders remain focused on Middle East conflict · Financial Times

S&P 500 Today: Stock Market Index Drops to 7,623.68 as Oil Surges and the 10-Year Treasury Yield Hovers at 5% Ahead of the Fed · BBN Times

Tariffs, trade talks, oil, the Middle East, Russia and Ukraine, and the bond market: the things that move the whole tape at once, from the wires. Headlines only, no view.

From the News Tape

Anthropic IPO live updates: AI lab lost $80.7 billion in first half of 2026 · Oct 26, 9:28 AM ET

Exchange-Traded Funds, Equity Futures Higher Pre-Bell Monday Ahead of Big Tech Earnings, Fed Decision · Oct 26, 9:18 AM ET

Apollo to buy nearly 10% stake in Abu Dhabi-backed alternative asset manager Mubadala Capital · Oct 26, 9:09 AM ET

Q3 Peak Season Arrives: Strong Beats, Sky-High AI Scrutiny · Oct 26, 9:03 AM ET

Fanatics teams up with OpenAI for new AI-powered shopping suggestion feature · Oct 26, 9:02 AM ET

Update: US Equity Futures Rise Pre-Bell as Traders Assess Declining Oil Prices, Await Fed Rate Decision This Week · Oct 26, 9:02 AM ET

The Better Buy? Why IGSB and SMB Serve Different Purposes · Oct 26, 8:50 AM ET

4 of the Highest Yields in the S&P 500 That Are Actually Covered · Oct 26, 8:48 AM ET

This week’s lesson

The six checks

Two minutes, one question, on Start Here →

Open the Tape →

Everything above is what the Tape shows at 9:40 ET, in plain English. Paper trading and education only: nothing here is financial advice, a recommendation, an instruction to follow, or a promise of income. Do your own homework before every trade. Trading carries a substantial risk of loss. Headlines belong to their publishers.

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