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The Week Ahead · Monday, October 5

Monday, October 5  |  Read online

Mixed: 54% of the watchlist green · VIX 16.06 · VIX term in contango — calm, premium-selling tape.

This week: 1 watchlist earnings, S&P 1.1% off its high.

S&P 500 7,728 +0.07%, 1.1% below its high. VIX 16.1 in contango: normal, both sides open. 54% of the 142-name watchlist is green at the open (76 up, 66 down). Read ten minutes after the open.

The name of the week

APLD reports Wednesday after the close

By HM5 Trainer

APLD is expected to earn $-0.25 a share. The desk has no read on it until the stack lines up. The crowd is on it too: 13 mentions in the last day, up 4 places. The desk's rule for a report is the same every time: no new option position across it, shares only with a stop sized for the move, and the honest trade is often to watch the reaction and take the second move, not the first.

The board at the open

S&P 5007,728  +0.07%
Nasdaq27,231  +0.15%
Dow51,101  -0.15%
VIX16.06  +4.90%
10-Yr5.30  +0.44%
Dollar102.25  +0.31%
Oil89.27  -2.02%
Gold4,179  +0.39%

Binary events this week

Wednesday · Oct 7

Earnings · APLD after the close

CMCSA Ex-dividend $0.33. Goes ex-dividend 2026-10-07 ($0.33 a share).

Friday · Oct 9

MRVL Ex-dividend $0.06. Goes ex-dividend 2026-10-09 ($0.06 a share).

The ± beside an earnings name is the size of a typical day for it, from its own volatility. The desk’s rule: no new option position across a report; shares only with a stop, sized for a move that big.

The briefing

Leading: Technology +0.22%, Utilities +0.05%, Financials +0.03%. Lagging: Cons. Disc. -0.33%, Real Estate -0.27%, Cons. Staples -0.21%.

First five minutes, up: WDC +3.93% · STX +3.59% · DKNG +3.23% · MSTR +2.72% · RBLX +2.60%

Down: INTC -2.96% · TWLO -2.22% · USO -1.76% · BX -1.36% · DELL -1.34%

The last prints

CPI, year over year3.7% (was 3.5%)
Core CPI2.8% (was 2.8%)
Payrolls, last month29k (was 133k)
Unemployment4.3%
Fed funds, upper bound4.00%

Crypto: BTC 86,077 +1.02%  ·  ETH 2,720 +0.78%  ·  SOL 120.65 -0.74%

Rates and the Fed, this week

Fed minutes this week could hint at how many more rate hikes are coming · qz.com

Wall Street Week Ahead: Q4 Has the Seasonals, but the Bond Market Has the Veto · Investing.com South Africa

MORNING BUSINESS REPORT: Busy week ahead on Wall Street, Social Security COLA estimate at 3.7% · WFSB

Treasury yields hold near multiyear highs as traders await data, Fed minutes this week · CNBC

Where the desk leans

Nothing is close to the gate at the open. That is a read too: the desk waits.

Best on each board

PAGS LONG · Small-Cap Movers · passes 5 of 5

Ape Callouts, last 7 days

TXN LONG · Vertical Spreads · 2026-10-02

SOXL LONG · Share Setups · 2026-10-02

BX SHORT · Vertical Spreads · 2026-09-30

A+ setups on the scans

Weekly: JNJ ▲ · LRCX ▲ · ARM ▲ · OXY ▲ · EEM ▲ · BX ▼
Daily: SPY ▲ · XLE ▲ · EEM ▲ · OXY ▲

Options flow

Calls: TSM $57.7M · CSCO $45.3M · JNJ $39.6M · MSTR $36.0M
Puts: GS $23.3M · AMAT $22.1M · WDC $13.5M · DIA $8.1M

A pick is the closest name to the six-check gate on its board; an Ape Callout passed every check with a Trigger signal firing. Both are paper trades on the desk, never advice.

Hot stocks: what the crowd is on

MU Micron Technologyhot67 mentions ▲1
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust54 mentions ▼1
desk: leans long, graded A+
VST Vistrahot42 mentions ▲241
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETFhot35 mentions ▼1
NVDA NVIDIAhot31 mentions ▲2
DRTS Alpha Tau Medicalhot22 mentions ▲615
DTE DTE Energy21 mentions ▼3
MSFT Microsofthot20 mentions ▲29

Mentions across the trading crowd in the last 24 hours. Crowded is not the same as right; the desk’s read is beside the names it has one for.

Mergers and corporate actions

LFCR LIFECORE BIOMEDICAL · 8-K filed 2026-09-28

OceanLight Acquisition · 8-K filed 2026-09-30

CBNK Capital Bancorp · 8-K filed 2026-09-30

Proem Acquisition Corp. I · 8-K filed 2026-09-28

NDRA ENDRA Life Sciences · 8-K filed 2026-10-01

PTC PTC · 8-K filed 2026-10-05

RXO RXO · 8-K filed 2026-10-05

SEC filings (8-K) that mention a merger, acquisition or agreement, newest first. A filing is a fact; what it means for the price is the week’s question.

The world

Will tariffs stop China taking over Britain’s car market? · spectator.com

India-US trade talks hit ’plateau’, finance minister says, as tariffs narrow room for deal By Reuters · Investing.com

Oil steadies as Middle East crude exports rise and G7 to release stocks · Global Banking & Finance Review

Housing Week Ahead: Hottest Markets, Mortgage Rates, and Home Loan Reforms · Realtor.com

'There's too much focus on the US market': How tariffs are forcing shrimp to find a new home · intrafish.com

Middle East Oil Exports Exceed Pre-Iran War Levels · کوردستان 24

Britain set to levy tariffs on Chinese electric cars, The Times r · Global Banking & Finance Review

Tariffs, trade talks, oil, the Middle East, Russia and Ukraine, and the bond market: the things that move the whole tape at once, from the wires. Headlines only, no view.

From the News Tape

Satya Nadella reinvented Microsoft once. Can he do it again in the AI era? · Oct 5, 9:28 AM ET

China shuts hundreds of banks as Beijing moves to shore up its financial system · Oct 5, 9:23 AM ET

Russia plague: What we know about the suspected case reportedly linked to a lab worker’s death · Oct 5, 9:20 AM ET

Treasury yields rise as traders await data, Fed minutes this week · Oct 5, 9:09 AM ET

The Average S&P 500 Bear Market Has Lasted 340 Days. Here's Why History Says That's Good News for Investors. · Oct 5, 9:05 AM ET

‘The pain was excruciating’: A friend in her 80s fell down her basement stairs. Could it have been avoided? · Oct 5, 9:00 AM ET

Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P 500 weekly preview: Q3 earnings to kick off as yields surge · Oct 5, 8:53 AM ET

GM says hybrid vehicles are coming: 'We're not tone deaf to our customers' · Oct 5, 8:30 AM ET

This week’s lesson

The Briefing: how to read a morning in two minutes

Two minutes, one question, on Start Here →

Open the Tape →

Everything above is what the Tape shows at 9:40 ET, in plain English. Paper trading and education only: nothing here is financial advice, a recommendation, or a promise of income. Trading carries a substantial risk of loss. Headlines belong to their publishers.

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